Armenia Files - Part 2
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September 19 2023. 24 hours. A republic that existed since 1991 dissolved in nine days. 100,617 people fled. 99 percent of the population.
On September 19 2023, Azerbaijan launched what it called an anti-terrorist operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Within 24 hours, the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership had accepted a ceasefire. The Republic of Artsakh, which had existed in some form since 1991, dissolved by presidential decree on September 28 2023. By October 3, 100,617 ethnic Armenians, approximately 99 percent of the pre-offensive population, had crossed into Armenia. The Lemkin Institute had declared a genocide watch before the offensive began. UNHCR documented the exodus.
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September 19 2023 · Military offensive · 24 hours · Ceasefire September 2002 / 07
September 19 2023. Azerbaijan launched a military offensive. Within 24 hours the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership accepted a ceasefire.
On September 19 2023, Azerbaijani forces initiated a large-scale military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan described as anti-terrorist measures. The offensive involved a bombing campaign targeting civilian infrastructure. Nagorno-Karabakh leadership reported 200 people killed in the offensive, including at least ten civilians and five children, and 400 wounded. Azerbaijani presidential envoy Elchin Amirbekov stated the army only targeted military infrastructure. Human Rights Network documentation, September-October 2023.
Within 24 hours of the offensive beginning, the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership accepted a Russian-brokered ceasefire on the morning of September 20. Azerbaijan declared military victory. Russian peacekeepers, stationed in the area since the 2020 ceasefire agreement, did not intervene to stem the fighting but arranged the ceasefire. The de facto republic, which had maintained autonomous governance since the early 1990s, had surrendered. UK House of Commons Library, July 2026.
Source: UK House of Commons Library, Nagorno-Karabakh briefing, July 2026 · Human Rights Network, We Are No One, September-October 2023 · FPRI, January 2024
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Lemkin Institute · Genocide watch declared before the offensive · ICJ conditions for destruction finding03 / 07
The Lemkin Institute declared a genocide watch before the offensive. The ICJ had already found the blockade consistent with conditions calculated to destroy a group.
The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention had declared a genocide watch for Nagorno-Karabakh prior to September 19 2023 based on the nine-month blockade and the pattern of actions by Azerbaijan. The Institute had previously issued a statement on Azerbaijan's non-compliance with the ICJ order stating it was outraged at the blatant disregard for the binding decision. A Genocide Alert was issued on September 21 2023 following the Artsakh surrender. Genocide Watch, September 21 2023.
Just Security documented in November 2023 that the ICJ's February order had already found it plausible that the blockade produced conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of the group, consistent with Article II(c) of the Genocide Convention. The ICJ's preliminary findings described a real and imminent risk to the health and life of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Those findings predated the offensive by seven months. Just Security, November 2023.
Source: Lemkin Institute, genocide watch statements 2023 · Genocide Watch, September 21 2023 · Just Security, starvation as genocide analysis, November 2023
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100,617 people fled · One week · 99 percent of population · UNHCR documented04 / 07
100,617 ethnic Armenians crossed into Armenia by October 3 2023. 99 percent of the pre-offensive population of Nagorno-Karabakh. In one week.
The Lachin corridor, which had been blocked for nine months, was opened to allow the mass exodus following the offensive. By October 3 2023, 100,617 ethnic Armenians had crossed into Armenia, representing approximately 99 percent of the pre-offensive population of Nagorno-Karabakh. The speed and scale of the displacement, an entire population leaving in one week, is without recent precedent in Europe. UNHCR documented the displacement and registered arrivals in Armenia. World Atlas, May 2026.
Many displaced people spent three to four days stranded on the road between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. 288 people died during the exodus: 218 in the Berkadzor fuel depot explosion, directly connected to the fuel scarcity produced by nine months of blockade, and 70 more en route to Armenia. Armenia described the exodus as ethnic cleansing. Azerbaijan described it as voluntary departure. UNHCR documented its scale. USC Institute of Armenian Studies, chronology of events.
Source: UNHCR, Armenia displacement documentation September-October 2023 · World Atlas, May 2026 · USC Institute of Armenian Studies chronology
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UNHCR registration · Largest displacement in recent European history · Speed unprecedented05 / 07
UNHCR documented the exodus in real time. The speed, 99 percent of a population in one week, is without recent precedent in Europe.
UNHCR maintained a presence in Armenia and documented the arrivals as they crossed the border. The scale of the displacement relative to the population, essentially the entire population leaving within a week, made it one of the most complete population transfers in recent history. The displaced arrived with little more than the clothes they were wearing. The Armenian government opened reception centres and emergency accommodation across multiple regions.
The Armenian government described the events as ethnic cleansing, citing the combination of the nine-month blockade followed immediately by a military offensive that resulted in the departure of 99 percent of the population. Azerbaijan described the exodus as voluntary and stated that ethnic Armenians who wished to remain as citizens of Azerbaijan would be welcome. As of mid-2024, the ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh was documented as essentially zero. Foreign Policy, September 29 2023.
Source: UNHCR, Armenia displacement documentation · Foreign Policy, September 29 2023 · CNN, September 28 2023
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September 28 2023 · Republic of Artsakh dissolved · Existed since 1991 · Presidential decree06 / 07
September 28 2023. Artsakh president Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree dissolving all state institutions of the Republic of Artsakh by January 1 2024.
The Republic of Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, had existed in some form since 1991, emerging from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Its government had maintained autonomous administration of the territory for over 30 years through two major wars and multiple ceasefire agreements. On September 28 2023, Artsakh president Samvel Shahramanyan signed a presidential decree formally dissolving all state institutions of the self-proclaimed republic effective January 1 2024. CNN, September 28 2023.
Azerbaijan now administers the territory directly. Reconstruction is documented across the seven surrounding districts and within Nagorno-Karabakh proper, with substantial public investment in roads, housing and an international airport at Fuzuli. The Azerbaijani government has announced plans for the return of Azerbaijani families displaced in the 1990s. The ethnic Armenian population, which numbered approximately 120,000 before the offensive, is documented as essentially absent. World Atlas, May 2026.
Source: CNN, September 28 2023 · Foreign Policy, September 29 2023 · World Atlas, What Happened to Nagorno-Karabakh, May 2026
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The question. Not a claim. Series continues next week.07 / 07
24 hours. A republic of 30 years ended. 100,617 people in one week. 99 percent gone. The Lemkin Institute had warned it was coming. The blockade had lasted nine months. What does it mean that the architecture preceded the event by exactly nine months and a court order was in place the entire time?
The Armenia Files continue next week. Part 3 of 4: The Energy Deal. In July 2022, the EU signed an energy agreement with Azerbaijan making it a key gas supplier to replace Russia. Ursula von der Leyen called Azerbaijan a reliable partner on camera. Thirteen months later the offensive. The documented connection between the deal and the silence that followed is the story.
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